Drone
Swarm has arrived
The first attack by a Drone swarm probably took place in Syria
on 19th January 2018. A Russian air base, with a naval facility
nearby, detected 13 flying objects on its radar, speeding toward them. They did
not look like aeroplanes and were flying very low. The Russian air defences
were able to shoot down seven of these and jammed the remaining six. These
drones, it was later learnt, were all loaded with explosives. This multi-
pronged attack on a military facility, though neutralised, raised eyebrows
about this new kind of attack and a new paradigm in aerial warfare. A similar
incident happened in Sep 2019 when non- state actors sent a swarm of 18 drones and
7 Cruise missiles to attack the Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities in Saudi
Arabia. These drones allegedly fired by Houthi rebels, were low flying, not too
sophisticated but were able to slip through the high- tech air defences
installed by US and France. They caused a lot of damage to the Saudi refineries
and the world crude output fell by almost 5% i.e. 5.7 million barrels in one
day. The US ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro commented on this
major slip-up by saying - the US supplied
air defences were not oriented to defend against an attack from Iran, that's
incomprehensible. If they were, but they were not engaged that’s incompetent. If
they simply weren't up to the task of preventing such precision attacks that's
concerning.
It was later learnt that the drone swarms launched on the Russian air base and the Saudi Arabian oil refineries were not too sophisticated and did not carry high explosives. However continuous improvement in artificial Intelligence and machine learning can definitely pose greater risks for vital installations and high value targets by such drone swarm attacks in times to come. This probably is a new form of asymmetric warfare and it seems that future aerial warfare will be based on electronics, software and sensors in the form of combat swarm of drones.
Capabilities of Drone swarms
This new breed of unmanned aerial vehicles are a step ahead of the individual drones of yester years. These have been developed in the aerospace industry by harnessing the power of artificial intelligence and machine learning in a way that a large number of drones can either operate independently or their actions can be coordinated so that all work towards the same objective. There is no minimum number prescribed for a group of drones to be called a drone swarm. These can be launched from the land or even from an aircraft in air and they can engage a number of targets at the same time with pinpointed accuracy. They can also be launched from the sea or any water body provided the launch craft has enough space for fifty or hundred drones and it has the technology to be in link with the drone swarm. Such a link may not be required in case the swarm has been programmed to function in an autonomous manner. The size of the drones in a swarm can vary from a few inches to a few feet across. These can be manually controlled from a central authority or they can also be programmed to fly autonomously. Artificial Intelligence and machine learning are the basic building blocks for this new form of warfare.
A drone swarm implies interconnected drones which are capable of working together to counter the enemy. These are low cost intelligent machines which have been inspired by the amazing coordination and collaborative behaviour shown by swarms of insects and birds – working efficiently without any central authority. The drone swarms of the future will probably also have the capability to choose separate targets, think independently, divide up the tasks between them and thereafter execute each task with high precision. Technically these swarms can operate on multiple frequencies which will resist the jamming introduced to counter the drones of today. On the defensive side such swarms can also be programmed to block or defend vital installations by engaging multiple incoming threats. A swarm can also be tasked to create a cluster before the enemy radar systems so as to distract and confuse the enemy regarding the extent of incoming danger and the number of threats involved.
The idea behind a drone swarm is that
machines will be able to talk to each other seamlessly, will take decisions
amongst themselves and finally achieve the objective for which they were
despatched. These swarms may comprise of a large number of low-cost drones that
can be programmed, using algorithms, to overwhelm the adversary by making them
work together and at times even making them act independently once the target(s)
has been sighted.
Limitations of current
air- defence systems
A large number of countries have exhibited their capability of simultaneously controlling a large number of drones in the sky and performing amazing synchronised aerial displays. Intel Corporation displayed a total of 2066 drones in a swarm formation in California in 2018. This record was broken by Geoscan of Russia on 3rd September 2020 when 2198 drones took to the skies in a scintillating ten minute display over St Petersburg which was visible from over 3 kms away. However the current record is held by Shenzhen Damoda Intelligent Control Technology of China which put up a dazzling aerial show performed by 3051 drones simultaneously on the 20th Sep 2020. This show was done as a tribute to the achievements of China in the space frontier. In India also aerial displays of synchronised drones have begun to taken place, though not at a scale mentioned above. The first time it was done during Kumbh Mela at Allahabad in Mar 2019 when 150 drones took to the skies. In Mar 2020 the night sky of Mumbai was lit up by 256 quadcopter drones which put up a colourful aerial spectacle for ten minutes for the public to see.
Countering a Drone swarm
It has been the experience that the
strategy of trying to find out one ideal system to counter a drone swarm has not
proved to be very successful. The prevalent logic seems to be that only a good
swarm can neutralise an enemy or a hostile swarm. These defensive small sized
swarms may be low cost, expendable and probably the only way known today to
counter a multi- pronged attack by a drone swarm. In a defensive role a drone swarm
can be placed near vital security installations and these can work together to
create a defensive wall to thwart the evil designs of an enemy drone/ drone swarm
which are sent to damage vital installations or to target an important
dignitary. Though the drones are normally programmed to avoid any obstacle, the
defensive drone swarm can be programmed to make contact with any incoming drone(s)
or threat and blow themselves up in a kamikaze-like-kill
thereby neutralising the threat effectively.
The measures required to counter a single
drone attack or that of a swarm requires a mix of active and passive measures.
These could further be categorised into Kinetic or non- Kinetic measures. The kinetic
or the hard kill approach involves
the use of high intensity or high power lasers to destroy or disable an
incoming threat. The incoming threat is completely destroyed as a result of
which they come crashing to the ground. The flip side here is that because of
the threat being completely destroyed all electronic evidence in the form of
digital footprints available are also lost which could have been of vital help in
trying to pinpoint the intent and source of the perpetrator.
The non-kinetic or the soft kill measures consist of trying to
take control of GPS or the radio frequency of the incoming drone(s) or jamming
their communication systems and thereby disorienting them. This process is
called spoofing, where the controls
of the drone are taken over by cloning its original signals. This process has
the advantage of having the custody of the enemy drone which can then be
analysed in detail for all the digital evidence to trace it to its owner.
The use of one drone against another
or a swarm of drones against another swarm can also be an option. This way
there is a high probability of neutralising a large number of incoming threats
or at least minimizing the threat posed by a drone swarm. The drones could be
programmed to act in a coordinated manner and approach the incoming swarm. Once
the threat is sighted each drone could lock itself to a target, while informing
all else in the swarm and thereafter destroy the target and reduce the threat.
Concept of Swarm
The inspiration behind the concept of building up a drone
swarm came by studying the ant and termite colonies – it was amazing how they were
able to build such large colonies with elaborate structures and carry out their
task with amazing precision without any centralised control. This concept,
known as stigmergy, implies how animals leave signals on the ground
which are picked up by others in the flock and thereafter each job is followed
up and repetition avoided. Ants do this by leaving some kind of a chemical
trail on the ground and termites do a similar thing inside their mounds.
Remarkable coordination and control can also be seen in a flock of birds when
they are in a flight - how they respond to subtle changes in speed and
direction within split seconds and how they move from one place to another at
such a fast pace without even one bird crashing into the other. It seems as if the
ants, termites and flock of birds are all coordinated in their actions by a superior
centralised command which they obey in a perfect synchronous manner.
Foreign context
The maximum number of drones that can be used in a military
or combat strike is not exactly known because of its secret nature. However
what started in 2018 with 13 drones attacking the Russian air and naval base in
Syria has grown manifold now. US has already demonstrated a swarm drone concept
Gremlins which air launches micro-drones
to perform reconnaissance over strategic enemy areas. China has also exhibited
its capability to launch a swarm of helicopter drones last year which can carry
all kinds of arms and ammunition to the target and then return to base in an
autonomous manner. Russian also has this capability in Flock93 which envisages launching of more than 100 drones in a VTOL
manner, each carrying a 5.5 pound warhead. Israeli company IAI is now offering
drone swarm packages for commercial users which allows the swarm to be
controlled by a smartphone app. The actual number of combat drones that can be
launched in a swarm by the frontline countries is anybody’s guess and something
that only time will tell.
Indian Context
The Drone scenario in India has seen the import of Israeli Harop and Heron drones which fly at a very high altitude and are able to do
surveillance of a designated area. DRDO has also come up with its Rustom series of surveillance drones and
the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) is working on Ghatak - a combat drone with stealth technology. India and US have recently
signed an agreement to jointly develop drone swarms and anti-drone systems
which will help mitigate the threat that is being posed by enemy drones today. US
has already demonstrated very significant drone swarm capabilities and with the
COMCASA (Communications Compatibility and
Security Arrangement) agreement, the transfer of technology and data
sharing between the two countries can be a logical step ahead.
HAL is presently working to develop a drone swarm system
called ALFA-S (Air Launched Flexible Asset- Swarm). Each drone in this swarm will be about 1- 2 metres in length,
carry 1.5 tons of explosives each and fly at speeds of approximately 100 km per
hour to engage and destroy targets in a kamikaze-like
action. One Su- 30 or Jaguar fighter can deliver at least 30- 40 such drones in
one go. This swarm will act in a coordinated manner and by using infrared,
optical and other sensors it will be able to detect and destroy targets on the
ground such as surface-to-air missiles, enemy radars, aircrafts etc.
Wingman
is another munition loaded semi-autonomous drone system being developed by HAL
on the manned and unmanned platform. The
Wingman drones will be half the size of a regular fighter aircraft, will be
armed with stealth features and will fly about a hundred kilometres ahead of
the conventional aircraft, providing sensitive battlefield information to the
mother aircraft. These will operate in large numbers to provide surveillance, cover
and protection to fighter pilots when they go on missions in an enemy territory
and will engage the enemy threats and try to confuse the enemy radars about the
real target.
On the 15th Jan 2021 India also announced its
entry in the combat drone swarm club by displaying an attack by 75 drones simultaneously
on simulated targets. This swarm mainly comprised of quadcopters- had scout
drones which looked for targets, mothership drones which released explosive
laden units and finally expendable drones which went for kamikaze like kill. Such swarms are also be capable of
carrying out supply missions, with a 75 drone swarm capable of delivering over
1200 pounds of supplies and medicines to troops in remote and inaccessible
frontline areas.
The commitment of the government towards
developing drone swarm capabilities can be seen in futuristic defence projects
as the Meher Baba Swarm Drone competition.
This is an Indian Air Force funded project, wherein people have been
invited to give suggestions and create effective swarm capabilities in drones.
The winner of this competition will bag a contract worth Rs 100 crores and will
build a fleet of 50 drones for IAF to deliver humanitarian assistance and
disaster relief in very remote areas of India as Siachen, Line of control etc.
Conclusion
The threat
posed by drone swarms is very real as has been exhibited by the attacks on
defense forces and vital installations in the recent past. This new paradigm in
asymmetrical warfare does pose serious threats to the defense of the country,
installations of national importance, big crowd gatherings and very important
dignitaries. The Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India has issued
detailed Standard Operating Procedures for Handling
the threats from Drones and other Sub- Conventional Aerial platforms in May
2019. The Ministry of Civil Aviation
has also issued National Counter Rogue Drone
Guidelines in Oct 2019 which intends to put in place measures and
guidelines to handle the threat posed by rogue drones. It talks of a Steering
Committee at the national level to evolve a Counter- drone framework and an
Implementation Committee for the regular monitoring of sub- conventional threat
environment and the implementation of the counter- drone measures at the
national and the state level. Because of their low cost, easy to assemble
configuration and rapid development of artificial intelligence and machine
learning, drone swarms will be used in a variety of ways by nations and
non-state actors. The threat can only increase in the times to come and so
countries today have no option but to develop systems to counter these threats
in an effective manner if they want to protect their high value targets of
national importance.
Abstract
Taking inspiration from the flock of birds and the
elaborately built ant and termite colonies, scientists have advanced the idea
of drones much further by bringing in the concept of Drone swarms. In such a swarm, tens or hundreds of small drones are
launched together and these can either be centrally controlled or each can
operate autonomously using the power of machine language and artificial
intelligence. This new concept indicates a paradigm shift in aerial warfare
today. The advantages of introducing a drone swarm are many – small in size,
low cost, flying close to ground, evading existing surveillance systems and the
unique ability to select targets based on embedded software and sensors. Used
for the first time in January 2018, the versatility of drone swarms has
undergone a sea change and today they are more lethal than ever before. There
are no foolproof measures to totally counter this threat today and such a
system will probably take some time to evolve. India is well aware of this
threat and the government is working in the direction on how to counter these
threats. This new concept of asymmetric aerial warfare is very real and does
pose a genuine threat to important dignitaries and vital installations. The
only option available is to develop ways to effectively and efficiently counter
this threat in the best possible manner.
Key Words
Drone swarm – Abqaiq – Houthi – Asymmetric warfare –
Artificial intelligence – Machine learning - Autonomously – Jamming – Air
defense – Size of drone swarm – Kamikaze - Kinetic – Non Kinetic – Concept of
swarm – Ant colony - Stigmergy – HAL – Alfa S – Wingman – Meher Baba – MHA –
MoCA.
Author
Pankaj Kumar Singh IPS
Addl DG BSF
Eastern Command, Kolkata
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